Phillies Projected To Finish 30-30, Miss Playoffs In FanGraphs ZiPS Projections

PHILADELPHIA (CBS) — Major League Baseball will have a season after all. The league imposed a 60-game schedule on Tuesday with the players association agreeing to the health and safety protocols set forth to mitigate the spread of COVID-19.

While there is still plenty to get through between now and Opening Day on July 23 or 24, the fact that a season is planned has led to renewed projections on how teams will fare. Unfortunately for the Phillies, the answer is, basically the same as they have in previous seasons.

FanGraphs updated its ZiPS projection model taking into account changes to rosters (injuries) and the 60-game slate. With a schedule featuring 40 games against the NL East and 20 against the AL East, the Phils are projected to finish exactly .500 at 30-30. In worse news, they’re given just a 30.4% chance of making the postseason and a 2.4% chance of winning the World Series.

That’s the downside. The positive news is the Phillies’ chances of making the playoffs actually increased by 11.7% from the preseason projections ZiPS made back in February. And, the team has gone 33-27 and 32-28 in the first 60 games of the last two seasons.

The organization has had a minor outbreak of COVID-19 over the last week that forced them to shut down their spring training complex in Clearwater, Florida. Coronavirus and injuries of any kind will play a factor in the season. So, despite the currently unfavorable projections, things can change quickly especially in a smaller 60-game sample.

For now, the Phillies are given the 14th best odds in the league by SportsLine of winning the World Series at +2500.